gene frenette blog from New England

Times-Union sports columnist Gene Frenette is up in Foxborough for tonight's AFC Divisional playoff game between the Jaguars and the New England Patriots. Here are some pregame thoughts and tidbits about the jags' historic confrontation with the unbeaten Patriots.

It's a spectacularly beautiful and almost cloud-free outside, with a high of a balmy 52 degrees expected later this afternoon and a low of 28 tonight. That may not be good news for the Jaguars because the conditions look to be pretty ideal in January for throwing the ball, which obviously favors quarterback Tom Brady and the Pats. The Jaguars could have used Ice Bowl-like conditions like it was 11 years ago today when they faced these same Patriots at old Foxboro Stadium in the AFC Championship game. That was a bitterly cold day when the Pats prevailed 20-6, but look for the point total to be much higher tonight. The Jags must be able to have success with their ground game to eat up clock and minimize New England's possession time. . . .

Some important injury news on the Patriots' front: starting cornerback Ellis Hobbs, who had been limited in practice on Thursday for undisclosed reasons, is nursing a groin injury and his status is at least questionable. Hobbs, who is a defender opposing quarterbacks often target, could be replaced by Randall Gay, who normally plays nickel back. Whoever is playing opposite Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel, look for Jaguars' quarterback David Garrard to be looking often in that direction, regardless of which receiver it might be. Jaguars' defensive tackle John Henderson has improved, but it's unknown how many snaps he'll be able to give them until he goes out there and tests it. As good as the Patriots' offensive line is, it's critical that Henderson be able to provide his normal production. If wide-bodied Grady Jackson is out there a lot, don't be surprised if the Patriots go to a little more no-huddle. And if that happens, that means backup defensive tackle Derek Landi, a surprising star in last week's win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, will likely push the career-high 51 snaps that he had in his first playoff game. . . .

In my hotel in Providence, R.I., which is about 30 miles from Gillette Stadium, I ran into three Jaguars' fans -- Dave Harris, Dave Garlington and Tony Federico -- who have been season-ticket holders from the franchise's inception. Interestingly, Federico was wearing his T-shirt from the Jaguars' first home playoff game back from the 1998 season. That was a 25-10 win over New England, the only win in Jags history over the Patriots. . . .

On Friday, you may have noticed that the Jaguars released receiver and special-teamer Chad Owens and elevated former Palatka High standout Charles Sharon off the practice squad. That move isn't all that surprising after Owens badly muffed a punt at Houston that led to a Texans' touchdown. It's possible that Sharon won't even be activated for tonight's game, but that will depend on the condition of Reggie Williams' back. There's a little concern about that, so if the Jaguars have to activate another receiver, they preferred it to be Sharon and not Owens. That's why Friday's transaction came down. . . .

A lot of speculation about how the Jaguars will play the Patriots defensively. How much do they blitz, how many do they drop back in coverage, etc? If you remember the Colts-Jaguars game in Indianapolis from 2005 when the Jaguars held Peyton Manning without a touchdown until the fourth quarter in a 10-3 Colts victory, the Jaguars emmployed a 3-3-5 defense for much of that game. They made the Colts run the ball, but Indianapolis didn't have any success scoring until they finally entrusted Edgerrin James to run it often on their only touchdown drive that won the game. It'll be interesting to see if they go back to that strategy tonight. And if they do, will the Patriots keep forcing the issue by passing or immediately resort to having Laurence Maroney running draws inside the tackles where the holes will be? My guess is Pats' coach Bill Belichick will take what the Jaguars are willing to give him. . . .

In today's Times-Union, I wrote that I thought the Patriots will lose before getting to the Super Bowl. Part of the reason for that is I think playing the Jaguars, and if they get by that, and Indianapolis Colts in back-to-back weeks will be very difficult. The Colts, more than anyone, are a team with the offensive makeup and solid defense to beat the Patriots in any kind of game. I give the Jaguars a 20 percent chance of winning tonight, but a lot of things have to go right, especially in the running game. If the Jaguars lose the turnover battle, they're probably done. The first half will be telling. The Jags don't want to be trailing at halftime. The Patriots are 65-2 since 2001 when leading at the half and 70-1 when up after the third quarter. Brady is a fabulous closer, so it's imperative that the Jags get a lead. They can't fall behind 12-0 like they did in Denver 11 years ago and expect to come back and win. I believe the Jaguars will give the Patriots a good game, make things as uneasy for Pats' fans as it was during the Baltimore, Philadelphia and the New York Giants games. But in the end, I think the Patriots will prevail. Patriots 31, Jaguars 23. . . .

Enjoy the game. Be sure to check out jacksonville.com for my pregame video report from Gillette Stadium, as well as the postgame video about 90 minutes after the game. Read all of the Times-Union's game coverage from Michael Wright, Vito Stellino, Garry Smits and myself in your Sunday newspaper.