Gator hoops walking fine line

Florida Times-Union sports columnist Gene Frenette posts weekly commentary on various aspects of the sports world for jacksonville.com This is the entry for Thursday February 21.


A lot of speculation about whether Florida's two-time defending national championship basketball team will reach the NCAA tournament, so here's the lowdown on what I believe must happen for Billy Donovan's Gators (20-7) to reach the Big Dance -- win three more games between the four remaining regular-season contests and the SEC tournament.
If Florida can get to 23 wins, which would mean either a 9-7 SEC record and a tournanment win or a 10-6 SEC record and an opening-round loss, that should be just enough for the NCAA selection committee to give the Gators a 10th consecutive tourney berth.
Wednesday's 85-82 home win over South Carolina was critical. Not because it raised UF's profile in any way, but because they avoided the massive damage of losing to a team outside the RPI Top 100. Last week's home loss to LSU is what put the Gators in their current predicament. They could ill afford another bad loss.
It's possible that 22 victories could get UF a bid, but that's only if the Gators upset Tennessee at home on March 5. Otherwise, they better reach 23 because UF's horrible non-conference schedule has dragged their RPI (No. 57) down into bubble territory. And with only one quality win, against Vanderbilt at home, Florida could use a home win over Tennessee or SEC Western division leader Mississippi State (March 1) to spruce up its so-so resume.
Contrary to what some people think, being a two-time NCAA champion will carry minimal weight with the selection committee. The selectors are entrusted with picking the 34 most qualified at-large teams based on their overall body of work, and it's presumptous to assume that Florida will get the benefit of a close call just because it hoisted the trophy the past two years.
If it's an absolutely dead-even call between the Gators and say, Miami (Fla.), for the last at-large spot, then it's possible that some commmittee members will subconsciously favor UF, but there's too many other ways for the committee to settle close calls than simply to look at a school's recent basketball tradition.
One big negative for the Gators, especially if they split their last four games and get bounced out of the SEC tournament in the first round, is their overall strength of schedule. It's ranked dead last among all the teams in the six major conferences. That's a huge point against them. Also, under that same 2-2 closing scenario, it also means Florida would have lost six of its last 10 regular-season games, which might be a death knell for the Gators if there's not a win over Tennessee to offset the damage.
The last at-large teams taken for the NCAAs usually are a No. 11 or 12 seed. Right now, looking at the Gators' resume and comparing it with the rest of the country, Florida is right in that 11-12-13 range. UF is riding the bubble big-time, and let's not forget that some of these at-large bids could be lost if teams like Drake, Butler, Memphis or St. Mary's/Gonzaga fail to win their conference tournaments. That could end up costing UF a bid as well if they don't take care of business down the stretch.
Florida has had a very respectable season, considering their roster is almost exclusively made up of freshmen and sophomores. The long-term future looks incredibly bright, but keeping UF's March Madness streak alive will require the Gators to play significantly better than they have in the past three weeks.
It looks like UF's magic number is 23 wins. Anything less, the Gators will run the risk of settling for a consolation prize that none of them want -- hosting a National Invitation Tournament game.


Nobody knows more than Byron Leftwich what a difference a year makes. Last February, he was being named the Jaguars' starting quarterback over David Garrard because head coach Jack Del Rio didn't want any lingering controversy about the position to drag through the offseason. Six months later, Del Rio cut Leftwich and elevated Garrard to No. 1.
Now fast forward another six months and Leftwich has been cut again, this time by the Atlanta Falcons, now coached by former Jaguars' defensive coordinator Mike Smith. So in one year, Leftwich has gone from being the Jaguars' franchise quarterback to being released twice, each time by a coach with Jaguar connections.
Just another reason why the NFL is an acronymn for Not For Long.


With the NFL Combine underway in Indianapolis, that commences two months of speculation about what the Jaguars will do with the 26th overall pick in the April draft. Much of the focus will be on acquiring a pass-rusher, but the Jaguars have to be careful not to reach too much there out of need. You want value for the spot you're picking as well.
Barring a trade up, which the Jaguars have done only once in their first-round history (1995, moving from early second round to No. 19 overall to take running back James Stewart), the Jags are picking at a time when the best pass-rushers are likely to be off the board. It's hard to believe Chris Long (Virginia), Vernon Gholston (Ohio State) and Derrick Harvey (Florida) will be available, and there's a decent dropoff at defensive end after that Big Three.
So if those three are gone, do the Jaguars then just take the next best available DE in Clemson's Phillip Merling or Miami's Calais Campbell (who had a subpar season in 2007)? That's where reaching for need can get NFL teams in trouble.
The Jaguars have a playoff-caliber roster and they're seeking to get to that championship level. It might best serve them in the first round to just take the best available player — providing he's not a running back or quarterback — who will be of immediate help somewhere.
As the Jaguars discovered through an injury-riddled 2007 season, you can never have enough reinforcements.


After watching the Los Angeles Lakers' entertaining 130-124 victory over the Phoenix Suns Wednesday night, it's clear that there ought to be as much buzz over the Lakers acquiring Pau Gasol in a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies as for the Suns landing Shaquille O'Neal from the Miami Heat.
O'Neal fared better than I expected with 15 points and 9 rebounds in 29 minutes, considering that he hadn't played in a month because of inflammation in his left hip and thigh. And as he gets adjusted to his new surroundings and plays more with All-Stars Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, it's possible the 36-year-old center might be able to acquire a fifth NBA championship ring.
But looking at the way Gasol scored 29 points in so many different ways, I'm not so sure that he won't be the difference-maker when the playoffs come around in what should be a wild Western Conference shootout. With Gasol on board, the NBA's best player in Kobe Bryant now has his Robin sidekick that was much needed for the Lakers to become a championship contender.
If Shaq was two or three years younger, I'd lean toward him bringing Phoenix a title. But seeing Gasol's versatile game, it's looking good for the Lakers to be king of the mountain again.